Phoenix Housing Market - "Active" Real Properties Trends


Active (Available) Properties Year to Date and Prior Years

phoenix_real_estate_market_-_active_-_september_1116

We have seen very steady inventory levels since May/June.  The absence of large scale new build activity is certainly helpful in the current market climate.  Interestingly, foreclosed homes only make up approximately 14-15% of available properties.    

This last fact raises the debate as to whether lenders are preparing to unload a lot of foreclosed homes in the market in the short term or are planning only to trickle in properties so as to keep the market stable and under control.

This graph does count Active with Contingency (under contract) properties so that available inventory is approximately 4,500 to 5,500 properties lower.

 

Active (Available) Properties - Trends Since 2001

phoenix_real_estate_market_-_active_-_long_term_-_september_1329_01

This graph shows the entire cycle from a normalized market in the 2001-4 period moving into the hyper-appreciation period of 2004-5 (overlapping with downturn), turning into a pronounced downturn starting when inventory began to rise in mid-2005.  It's important to note how inventory in the 2001-4 period hovered between 20,000-23,000 properties.  

Given the growth in population in the Valley and the number of new properties constructed since that time, market equilibrium in the future may range from approximately 25,000 to 30,000 properties being available or "Active" at any time.   

This graph does count Active with Contingency (under contract) properties so that available inventory is approximately 4,500 to 5,500 properties lower.